Promotion strategy of electric vehicle in the post-subsidy era: empirical evidence from China

Abstract Financial incentive policies have played a crucial role in cultivating the electric vehicle market during its initial development stage. However, as subsidies decline, how governments can effectively adjust policy strategies to sustain market growth has become a critical practical challenge in the post-subsidy era. Based on sales data, infrastructure data, and policy information from new energy vehicle pilot cities before and after the implementation of subsidy phase-out policies during 2018–2019, this study employs the random coefficient discrete choice model to characterize the purchase decisions of heterogeneous consumers and empirically examines the impact of financial subsidies and charging facilities on electric vehicle adoption. The research findings are as follows: (1) As vehicle purchase subsidies decline, the availability of charging facilities and charging subsidies have gradually become more important factors influencing consumers’ electric vehicle choices, compared with convenience policies such as free license plates. (2) For cities with underdeveloped charging infrastructure, increasing the number of facilities can more effectively improve electric vehicle market share, and this incentive effect is further enhanced following subsidy reductions. (3) Through simulation analysis of EV diffusion under different charging facility construction and promotion policy scenarios, this study finds that when the number of charging infrastructures per 10,000 households increases by 4 units, the EV market share rises from 6.02% to 9.39%, representing a 56% increase. Furthermore, comparative analysis of the two subsidy schemes reveals that vehicle purchase subsidies are more effective in cities with underdeveloped charging infrastructure, while charging infrastructure construction subsidies yield better results in cities with well-developed infrastructure. This study provides empirical evidence and policy recommendations for governments and enterprises to more effectively advance the electric vehicle industry in the post-subsidy era.