Concerning uncertainty—a systematic survey of uncertainty-aware XAI

This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into explanatory pipelines and how such methods are evaluated. Across the literature, three recurring approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ) emerge (Bayesian, Monte Carlo and conformal methods), alongside distinct strategies for integrating uncertainty into explanations: assessing trustworthiness, constraining models or explanations and explicitly communicating uncertainty. Evaluation practices remain fragmented and largely model centred, with limited attention to users and inconsistent reporting of reliability properties (e.g. calibration, coverage and explanation stability). Recent work leans towards calibration, distribution-free techniques and recognizes explainer variability as a central concern. We argue that progress in UAXAI requires unified evaluation principles that link uncertainty propagation, robustness and human decision-making, and highlight counterfactual and calibration approaches as promising avenues for aligning interpretability with reliability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advancing uncertainty quantification in AI systems'.

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Publication Details

Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
Published
2026-08-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2025.0079
Primary Topic
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Concerning uncertainty—a systematic survey of uncertainty-aware XAI

Tuve Löfström, Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Anders Hjort, Helena Löfström
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
article

Concerning uncertainty—a systematic survey of uncertainty-aware XAI

Tuve Löfström, Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Anders Hjort, Helena Löfström
article en

Abstract

This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into explanatory pipelines and how such methods are evaluated. Across the literature, three recurring approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ) emerge (Bayesian, Monte Carlo and conformal methods), alongside distinct strategies for integrating uncertainty into explanations: assessing trustworthiness, constraining models or explanations and explicitly communicating uncertainty. Evaluation practices remain fragmented and largely model centred, with limited attention to users and inconsistent reporting of reliability properties (e.g. calibration, coverage and explanation stability). Recent work leans towards calibration, distribution-free techniques and recognizes explainer variability as a central concern. We argue that progress in UAXAI requires unified evaluation principles that link uncertainty propagation, robustness and human decision-making, and highlight counterfactual and calibration approaches as promising avenues for aligning interpretability with reliability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advancing uncertainty quantification in AI systems'.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering SciencesVol. 384(2327)
Friends United (US), GNA University (IN), University of Bologna (IT), Jönköping University (SE)
Familjen Kamprads Stiftelse
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 18%
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
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Concerning uncertainty—a systematic survey of uncertainty-aware XAI — Tuve Löfström, Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, et al. · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS