Racial bifurcation and social control: Toward a general group conflict theory

Abstract Research on racial threat theory often demonstrates inconsistent results, suggesting limitations to traditional measures such as “percentage Black.” This study proposes racial bifurcation as a theoretically grounded alternative that peaks at demographic parity (a 50:50 split), the theoretical point of maximum tension, and is generalizable across any group configuration. Using fixed‐effects regression on data from 1772 US counties (1990–2023), we compare longitudinal associations between jail and prison populations and admissions across multiple demographic indicators of threat: percentage Black, racial diversity, and racial bifurcation. All three predicted variation in overall incarceration, but not variation in race‐specific incarceration, indicating that effects are diffuse. Racial bifurcation and racial diversity displayed consistent effects, showing that incarceration peaks near the midpoint of diversity—precisely when bifurcation peaks—but declines as counties diverge from bipolar parity toward greater homogeneity or heterogeneity. In contrast, effects of percentage Black were inconsistent. Findings support that racial polarization is a source of conflict and control, but that where groups share a legal process, punitiveness intended for specific groups instead harms all. By employing predictors and outcomes that are agnostic to specific group identities, and demonstrating their theoretical and empirical advantages, this study supports a generalizable group conflict theory.