Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Water Ecological Products Value Realization in the Tarim River Basin under the Social Ecological System (SES) Framework

The effectiveness of realizing the value of water ecological products (WEPV) is essential to fostering a sustainable development model characterized by harmony between humans and nature. A scientific evaluation of this effectiveness therefore provides a critical basis for addressing the longstanding tension between ecological protection and economic development. Based on panel data from 42 counties and cities in the Tarim River Basin from 2018 to 2022, this study follows the Social-Ecological System (SES) framework and employs the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to measure the effectiveness of water ecological products value (WEPV) realization and identify the key obstacle factors across four core subsystems: the Resource System (RS), Governance System (GS), Actors(A), and Outcomes(O). On this basis, the study further examines the co-evolutionary characteristics of each subsystem, major constraining factors, regional convergence trends, and dynamic laws of change. The results show that the effectiveness of WEPV realization in the Tarim River Basin exhibits a spatial distribution pattern, with the middle and lower reaches being significantly higher than the upper reaches. Among the subsystems, the RS exhibited the smallest fluctuations, whereas the GS exhibited the largest coefficient of variation. The GS exhibits a significant positive relationship between the GS and A subsystems. A certain nonlinear monotonic characteristic exists between the O subsystem and the RS, which may be influenced by extreme values observed in some counties and cities. Regional disparities in the realization of WEPV have gradually widened, presenting a gradient distribution pattern of the lower reach>upper reaches>middle reaches. The construction of water ecosystem financial products, related tax and fee incentives, and ecotourism revenue are key obstacles to enhancing effectiveness.