Who listens to rainfall forecasts? Access to and use of seasonal rainfall forecasts in smallholder agriculture

Although seasonal rainfall forecasts are a crucial tool for mitigating climate impacts and improving the welfare of smallholder farmers in developing countries, their access remains limited. This study examines the link between access to and use of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Drawing on nationally representative cross-sectional data from 7,241 farmers collected in Zambia in 2019, we identify the key determinants influencing both access and use of seasonal climate forecasts. Results from a Heckman two-stage selection model indicate that education, ownership of a mobile phone or radio, access to extension services, on-farm income, and membership in farmer groups significantly increase the likelihood of accessing seasonal rainfall forecasts. Furthermore, the probability of using such forecasts is significantly higher among farmers who had previously experienced droughts. Additional findings show that television ownership and residence in agro-ecological zone I also positively influence both access and use.