Climate change, ICT Diffusion and Internal Migration in Tunisia

This study analyzes the determinants of internal migration in Tunisia, with particular emphasis on the roles of climate change and ICT diffusion. To that end, we estimate an extended gravity model using OLS and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimators across four census periods (1994–2024). Empirical results provide evidence that the rainfall levels in origin cities and temperatures in destination cities shape internal migration flows. Conversely, ICT diffusion accelerates migration by lowering departure barriers at the origin and enhancing the attractiveness of technologically advanced destination cities. Furthermore, the significant interaction between ICT penetration and climate variability highlights a synergistic effect that significantly intensifies migration flows. These findings suggest that governments should develop integrated policy frameworks and incorporate dynamic absorption capacity into urban planning to anticipate migration dynamics intensified by the accelerating climate change and the digital revolution.