Trial by Fire: Uncertainty and Adaptive Management in Forest Ecology

Abstract Scientists studying fire-prone ecosystems have to contend with uncertainty stemming from causal complexity and conflicting aims, but they manage different types of uncertainty differently. I recommend that they instead adopt a common approach to uncertainty involving context-sensitivity and adaptive learning. Such an approach is consonant with insights from pragmatism and pluralism in philosophy of science and may even suggest a productive way to frame uncertainty while facilitating public trust.