Bridging Flexibility and Usability: Configuring CoSMoS-2s for Operational Rainfall Simulation in the Arno River Basin

Rainfall simulation models are essential for hydrological studies, supporting applications in flood control, urban planning and climate change adaptation. A key challenge is developing models that effectively capture rainfall intermittency while remaining computationally efficient and practical for operational use. The two-state intermittent model CoSMoS-2s, addresses this by generating rainfall time series that preserve marginal distributions and autocorrelation structures. We assess the practical applicability of CoSMoS-2s and provide an operational configuration framework through a reproducible, low-parameter, non-site-specific workflow that translates the model’s flexibility into practical implementation under realistic data limitations. The model is evaluated using 20 years of daily data from seventy rain gauges in the Arno River Basin. Results show good agreement in reproducing wet and dry spell durations, dry-day probabilities, nonzero rainfall statistics, and extremes. The influence of key modeling choices is also discussed, highlighting practical strengths and limitations for operational applications.

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Publication Details

Journal
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Published
2026-07-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2710203
Primary Topic
Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
Type
article
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article

Bridging Flexibility and Usability: Configuring CoSMoS-2s for Operational Rainfall Simulation in the Arno River Basin

Yannis Markonis, Elena Volpi, Francesco Cappelli, Simon Michael Papalexiou et al.
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
article

Bridging Flexibility and Usability: Configuring CoSMoS-2s for Operational Rainfall Simulation in the Arno River Basin

Yannis Markonis, Elena Volpi, Francesco Cappelli, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Salvatore Grimaldi
article en

Abstract

Rainfall simulation models are essential for hydrological studies, supporting applications in flood control, urban planning and climate change adaptation. A key challenge is developing models that effectively capture rainfall intermittency while remaining computationally efficient and practical for operational use. The two-state intermittent model CoSMoS-2s, addresses this by generating rainfall time series that preserve marginal distributions and autocorrelation structures. We assess the practical applicability of CoSMoS-2s and provide an operational configuration framework through a reproducible, low-parameter, non-site-specific workflow that translates the model’s flexibility into practical implementation under realistic data limitations. The model is evaluated using 20 years of daily data from seventy rain gauges in the Arno River Basin. Results show good agreement in reproducing wet and dry spell durations, dry-day probabilities, nonzero rainfall statistics, and extremes. The influence of key modeling choices is also discussed, highlighting practical strengths and limitations for operational applications.

Hydrological Sciences Journal
Roma Tre University (IT), Università degli Studi della Tuscia (IT), Universität Hamburg (DE), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Hamburg University of Technology (DE)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
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