The Teacher and the Test? an Analysis of the Short and Long‐Run Predictive Power of Achievement Indicators

ABSTRACT Test scores provide objective indicators of student achievement, but are argued to neglect certain skills. Teacher assessments, conversely, are subjective but typically designed to provide a more holistic evaluation of student potential. Combining survey and administrative data for the Netherlands, we estimate the predictive power of test scores and teacher assessments measured at age 12 across the life cycle, and analyse what this predictive power reflects. We find that the non‐overlapping predictive power of both indicators is strong. While the predictive power of the teacher assessment is partially driven by socio‐economic bias, self‐fulfilling prophecy effects and, especially, test measurement error, we find that it also captures productive skills that tests do not.