An operational platform for sub-seasonal forecasts of drought-related hazards
Ongoing climate change is increasing the occurrence of drought-related hazards with negative impacts across many areas of ecology, economy, and society, which are typically analyzed separately. The www.drought.ch/de platform informs users about the ongoing dryness situation in Switzerland with a focus on hydro-meteorological conditions. Here, we enhance this platform by implementing forecasts for the upcoming 32 days of the following drought-related hazards: runoff, soil moisture, stream water temperature, fish thermal stress, bark beetle development, forest fire, and glacier mass balance. We employ a combination of process-based and data-driven models. For these various models, we generate operational forecasts by using sub-seasonal weather forecasts as input. In addition, we leverage the advantages of using probabilistic forecasts for communicating hazard levels. Finally, we aim to provide a decision tool explained in plain language that is based on user-relevant maps of the implemented drought-related hazards. Being aware of these potential hazards from days to weeks in advance could contribute to mitigate severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts.
Authors
- Luzi Bernhard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7028-3689)
- Elisabeth Maidl
- Aaron Cremona (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2553-903X)
- Ryan S. Padrón (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7857-2549)
- Daniel Farinotti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3417-4570)
- Loïc Pellissier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2289-8259)
- Matthias Buchecker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0970-7382)
- Andrea Minetti
- Konrad Bogner
- Gianni Boris Pezzatti
- Massimiliano Zappa
- Martin M. Gossner
Institutions
- ETH Zurich (CH)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Cartography
- Published
- 2026-07-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1080/23729333.2026.2702173
- Primary Topic
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research