ENSO-Induced Heterogeneous Response of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over East China

East China is a global hotspot for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). While previous studies have extensively examined the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TC activity, whether and how ENSO alters the spatial organization of precipitation in landfalling TCs remains insufficiently understood. Using high-resolution satellite precipitation observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study investigates the heterogeneous responses of landfalling TC precipitation over East China to different ENSO phases. Composite analyses indicate ENSO-associated differences in TC precipitation at both regional and storm-relative scales. At the regional scale, positive composite precipitation differences occur over Fujian, southern Zhejiang, and Taiwan during El Niño years, whereas negative differences occur in parts of northern East China relative to La Niña years. At the storm-relative scale, mean outer-rainband precipitation was estimated to be 26.02% higher during El Niño years; however, the storm-level bootstrap 95% confidence interval included zero, indicating uncertainty associated with the limited number of independent TC events. Precipitation during La Niña years was relatively more concentrated within the inner-core region. Mechanistic diagnostics show that the El Niño composite is associated with differences in thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, including higher low-level cyclonic vorticity, upper-level divergence, ascent, and anomalous steering flows over southern East China and adjacent seas. TC-centric analysis further indicates that higher moisture supply and dynamic lifting coincide with the outer-rainband precipitation contrast during El Niño years. These findings suggest that ENSO is associated with spatially heterogeneous and structurally distinct responses of landfalling TC precipitation over East China, providing a diagnostic basis for understanding ENSO-related differences in regional TC precipitation risk.

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Publication Details

Journal
Water
Published
2026-07-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/w18151849
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

ENSO-Induced Heterogeneous Response of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over East China

Mei Liang, Shifei Tu, Senfeng Liu, Jianjun Xu et al.
Water
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
article

ENSO-Induced Heterogeneous Response of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over East China

Mei Liang, Shifei Tu, Senfeng Liu, Jianjun Xu, Shunqi Zeng, Yuan Tang
article en

Abstract

East China is a global hotspot for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). While previous studies have extensively examined the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TC activity, whether and how ENSO alters the spatial organization of precipitation in landfalling TCs remains insufficiently understood. Using high-resolution satellite precipitation observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study investigates the heterogeneous responses of landfalling TC precipitation over East China to different ENSO phases. Composite analyses indicate ENSO-associated differences in TC precipitation at both regional and storm-relative scales. At the regional scale, positive composite precipitation differences occur over Fujian, southern Zhejiang, and Taiwan during El Niño years, whereas negative differences occur in parts of northern East China relative to La Niña years. At the storm-relative scale, mean outer-rainband precipitation was estimated to be 26.02% higher during El Niño years; however, the storm-level bootstrap 95% confidence interval included zero, indicating uncertainty associated with the limited number of independent TC events. Precipitation during La Niña years was relatively more concentrated within the inner-core region. Mechanistic diagnostics show that the El Niño composite is associated with differences in thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, including higher low-level cyclonic vorticity, upper-level divergence, ascent, and anomalous steering flows over southern East China and adjacent seas. TC-centric analysis further indicates that higher moisture supply and dynamic lifting coincide with the outer-rainband precipitation contrast during El Niño years. These findings suggest that ENSO is associated with spatially heterogeneous and structurally distinct responses of landfalling TC precipitation over East China, providing a diagnostic basis for understanding ENSO-related differences in regional TC precipitation risk.

WaterVol. 18(15)
China Meteorological Administration (CN), Guangdong Ocean University (CN)
China Meteorological Administration, Guangdong Ocean University
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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