Evolution Mechanism and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Carbon Emissions Under Carbon Neutrality Targets: Evidence from Zhejiang Province, China

Land use change is one of the key factors affecting carbon emissions and environmental quality. Based on current land use data and energy consumption data, this article quantifies carbon emissions from land use in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2020, and constructs an economy-population-land-energy-carbon emission coupled system. It analyzes the interactions among land use, population, economic development, energy consumption, and carbon emissions, as well as how these interactions affect the achievement of carbon peaking in Zhejiang Province from a systematic perspective. The results show that (1) During the study period, the rapid urbanization of Zhejiang Province presented significant land conversion characteristics, which are manifested in the expansion of construction land and the reduction of arable land area. (2) From 2005 to 2020, carbon emissions from land use in Zhejiang Province showed an overall upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 5315.074 × 104 tC, and construction land is the main carbon source. (3) According to the current development trend, total carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province will continue to rise. After a comprehensive comparison of five scenarios, rapid population growth and economic development have a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emissions from land use in Zhejiang Province, while adjusting the land use structure, optimizing the industrial structure, and improving energy use efficiency can effectively reduce carbon emissions from land use.