Seasonal Dynamics and Vertical Structure of the Atmospheric Transport of Industrial Emissions to Lake Baikal

Lake Baikal is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and the largest freshwater reservoir on the planet. It is located in the center of Eurasia, in an industrially developing region—Eastern Siberia. Although a regulatory and legal framework exists, quantitative estimates of the pathways of pollutant transport from industrial sources to the lake water area remain insufficiently studied, particularly in the context of seasonal dynamics and the influence of developing industrial sectors. In the present work, a quantitative analysis of the direct atmospheric transport of pollutants from three groups of stationary sources (the Irkutsk agglomeration, the Republic of Buryatia, and the oil-and-gas production areas of Irkutsk Oblast) to the lake surface was carried out for the first time using the HYSPLIT model for the period 2005–2025. About 4.7 million forward trajectories were computed at three heights (250, 500, 1000 m AGL) for each group of sources. It was established that conditions favorable for the transport of impurities to the lake occur in more than half of the cases. However, the spatial distribution of the impact on the Baikal air basin is heterogeneous: the Irkutsk agglomeration accounts for 67.5% of the “hits” (the main contribution being to the air basin of the Southern Basin), the Republic of Buryatia 18.8% (to the Central Basin), and the oil-and-gas areas 19.9% (to the Northern Basin). On the basis of a multifactor analysis, a combined Potential Impact (PI) index was developed that makes it possible to rank regional sources by the degree of their impact on the lake ecosystem, taking into account the emission volume, the probability of delivery, the residence time, and the height of trajectory passage. The results form a scientific basis for optimizing the spatial placement of environmental monitoring networks and for preliminary zoning of environmental risk assessment over the Lake Baikal water area. Ultimately, this study contributes to the sustainable management of the Baikal Natural Territory by providing actionable insights for balancing regional industrial growth with the long-term ecological preservation of the planet’s largest freshwater reservoir.