Impacts of urban expansion and land use on land surface temperature and peri urban livelihoods in Bahir Dar Zuria Ethiopia using geospatial and statistical analysis

Urbanization and population growth are challenging the world in different aspects. In developing country like Ethiopia, rapid population growth and urbanization are major issues. Ethiopia faces significant challenges including pressure on infrastructure, housing shortages, and environmental degradation. Thus, this study examines the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on land surface temperature (LST) in Bahir Dar Zuria between 1995 and 2024 using Landsat imagery. The Landsat imagery was processed using mono-window (Landsat 5/7) and single channel (Landsat 8) algorithms to retrieve LST, with LULC classified via supervised maximum likelihood classification. The results indicated that the built-up area increased by 13.49 percentage points (from 3.59 to 17.08%) and cropland decreased by 11.16 percentage points (from 77.66 to 66.50%). These changes have contributed to a notable increase in mean LST from 25.94 °C in 1995 to 29.55 °C in 2024, reflecting a 3.61 °C rise. The result indicated that the LST values were highest in suburban zones (5–15 km) from the city center. Urban–rural gradient analysis demonstrated higher LST values within 5–15 km of the city center, correlating with industrial zones and new housing developments. Statistical analysis indicated a positive relationship between LST and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) (R 2 = 0.24–0.42) and a negative correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (R 2 = 0.25–0.32). In 2024, about 46% of the study area fell into the worst UTFVI class (> 0.020), indicating severe thermal discomfort. The study underscores the need for sustainable urban planning, stricter land-use policies, and enhanced green infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization. Community engagement in urban development processes is also essential to ensure balanced and environmentally conscious growth. Through implementing evidence-based policies and fostering sustainable development practices, Bahir Dar Zuria can better manage urban expansion while preserving critical natural and agricultural resources.