Operational Costs at the Rio Grande Port Complex (RS, Brazil): An Analysis of the Influence of Climatic Variables

Abstract This paper estimates the operational effects and opportunity costs of weather-induced stoppages at the Rio Grande Port Complex, Brazil, over the period 2020–2024. The empirical strategy combines operation-level port microdata from ANTAQ with meteorological information from INMET and identifies causal effects through a two-step design based on Entropy Balancing and Weighted Least Squares with HC3 robust standard errors. The estimates show economically relevant and statistically significant increases in waiting-to-berth time, operation time, and total port stay after climate-related stoppages, with stronger effects at public terminals. The results also reveal marked heterogeneity across cargo segments. Over the full sample period, cumulative opportunity costs are estimated at US$ 5.39 million for General Cargo and US$ 7.60 million for Solid Bulk, reflecting distinct exposure profiles and differences in berth allocation. Beyond direct monetary losses, the evidence indicates persistent losses in effective port capacity associated with adverse weather conditions. These findings support the adoption of real-time meteorological monitoring, segment-specific contingency protocols, and resilient infrastructure investments to reduce delays, mitigate economic losses, and strengthen climate adaptation in port logistics.