Structural Limits of Ellipticity: Obstructions to Mean–Variance Sufficiency in Financial Markets

Elliptical distributions provide one of the most powerful justifications for mean– variance portfolio analysis. Under joint ellipticity, every portfolio return shares a common standardized shape, so a broad class of law-invariant risk measures reducesto a function of location and scale. This paper studies the structural content of that assumption and identifies the settings in which it cannot be maintained. The analysis separates generator-free implications from restrictions that require additionalassumptions on support, temporal aggregation, radial tails, or regime structure.The paper develops three principal results. First, limited liability combined with symmetry imposes a mirror bound that is difficult to reconcile with observed asset returns. Second, mixtures with a common location and generator remain elliptical only when their dispersion matrices are proportional; for two Gaussian regimes, the paper gives a complete classification that also excludes nontrivial location switching. Third, a baseline-free first variation of expected shortfall isolates the relevant tail functional before any Gaussian Edgeworth approximation is introduced. This distinction clarifies when co-skewness corrections are theoretically justified and when an elliptical reference distribution must first absorb symmetric higher-order shape.Additional results connect ellipticity to convex payoffs, capital structure, multiplicative compounding, horizon invariance, common tail indices, tail-dependence rigidity, and radial–angular independence. Exact tests are derived for central symmetry and radial–angular independence when nuisance parameters are known. For dependent returns, a block sign-flip calibration re-estimates filtering, centering, and thresholds within each resample. Under its maintained dynamic sign-invariance condition, theprocedure has appropriate simulated size across persistent-volatility, GARCH, and Student elliptical nulls. Applied to a frozen sample of United States equity portfolios from 1949 through 2017, it rejects central symmetry across nine pre-specified paneland threshold combinations after Holm correction. Throughout, a claims register separates proved, classical, conditional, numerical, and empirical statements, making the scope of each conclusion explicit. The results support treating ellipticity as aconditional, horizon-specific approximation whose practical adequacy depends on whether structural misspecification is economically material relative to the estimation error required to model it.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-07-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21708759
Primary Topic
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Structural Limits of Ellipticity: Obstructions to Mean–Variance Sufficiency in Financial Markets

Miquel Noguer Alonso
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
preprint

Structural Limits of Ellipticity: Obstructions to Mean–Variance Sufficiency in Financial Markets

Miquel Noguer Alonso
preprint en

Abstract

Elliptical distributions provide one of the most powerful justifications for mean– variance portfolio analysis. Under joint ellipticity, every portfolio return shares a common standardized shape, so a broad class of law-invariant risk measures reducesto a function of location and scale. This paper studies the structural content of that assumption and identifies the settings in which it cannot be maintained. The analysis separates generator-free implications from restrictions that require additionalassumptions on support, temporal aggregation, radial tails, or regime structure.The paper develops three principal results. First, limited liability combined with symmetry imposes a mirror bound that is difficult to reconcile with observed asset returns. Second, mixtures with a common location and generator remain elliptical only when their dispersion matrices are proportional; for two Gaussian regimes, the paper gives a complete classification that also excludes nontrivial location switching. Third, a baseline-free first variation of expected shortfall isolates the relevant tail functional before any Gaussian Edgeworth approximation is introduced. This distinction clarifies when co-skewness corrections are theoretically justified and when an elliptical reference distribution must first absorb symmetric higher-order shape.Additional results connect ellipticity to convex payoffs, capital structure, multiplicative compounding, horizon invariance, common tail indices, tail-dependence rigidity, and radial–angular independence. Exact tests are derived for central symmetry and radial–angular independence when nuisance parameters are known. For dependent returns, a block sign-flip calibration re-estimates filtering, centering, and thresholds within each resample. Under its maintained dynamic sign-invariance condition, theprocedure has appropriate simulated size across persistent-volatility, GARCH, and Student elliptical nulls. Applied to a frozen sample of United States equity portfolios from 1949 through 2017, it rejects central symmetry across nine pre-specified paneland threshold combinations after Holm correction. Throughout, a claims register separates proved, classical, conditional, numerical, and empirical statements, making the scope of each conclusion explicit. The results support treating ellipticity as aconditional, horizon-specific approximation whose practical adequacy depends on whether structural misspecification is economically material relative to the estimation error required to model it.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (US)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.