The security imperative: how crime conditions the electoral effects of inequality in Latin America

Crime and income inequality rank among the most important challenges in Latin America, but the authors know little about how they jointly shape election outcomes. The authors develop a formal model in which crime conditions the effect of inequality on voting behavior. At low levels of crime, inequality raises support for leftist parties. Yet when crime is high, it increases support for rightist parties emphasizing law enforcement policies aligned with voters’ security concerns. Using data for executive elections in Latin America (1990–2018), the authors find that inequality raises support for right-wing parties in high-crime environments, but not for leftist parties when crime is low. A case study of Mexico at the subnational level reveals a similar conditional pattern. The authors also present survey evidence supporting key implications of the theory at the individual level. These findings suggest that the perennial security imperative often comes first when inequality and crime are high.