Environmental and biotic drivers of Aedes albopictus spatiotemporal distribution in a subtropical city: A major transit hub on Argentina’s triple border

Biophysical and ecological factors are known to shape the distribution of mosquito vectors, yet their interaction across heterogeneous and rapidly transforming landscapes remains insufficiently understood. We assessed the occurrence of Aedes albopictus in relation to environmental and biotic drivers in the Iguazú Department, Misiones Province, Argentina, within the tri-border region shared with Brazil and Paraguay, a key epidemiological corridor for arboviral transmission. Mosquitoes were monitored using adult activity sensors (ovitraps) across 81 sites representing urban, periurban, and wild environments (later divided in pristine and disturbed wild) in eleven sampling sessions between April 2019 and February 2020. Environmental characterization integrated field data and remotely sensed biophysical variables at different spatial scales relevant to vector ecology, which were included in generalized linear mixed models together with the presence of Ae. aegypti as covariate to account for potential interspecific effects, and co-occurrence of both Aedes species was further evaluated using Bayesian analyses. Aedes albopictus showed a strongly stratified spatial pattern, with 30.4-30.6% positive ovitraps in periurban and disturbed wild, in comparison with 14.2% for urban and only 3.9% for pristine wild. Occurrence probability increased with intermediate levels of monthly precipitation and minimum temperature, showed nonlinear responses to vegetation cover, and decreased with impervious surfaces, explaining 67% of the variability. Co-occurrence analyses indicated positive associations in urban and periurban environments, suggesting partial niche overlap under anthropogenic conditions. Our results identify periurban and disturbed wild environments as critical ecological interfaces structuring Ae. albopictus distribution. These findings provide a robust basis for targeted surveillance and highlight the need for coordinated, cross-border vector management strategies in rapidly transforming subtropical regions.