Adaptive policies balancing trade, productivity and cropland increases can support Zambia’s nutrition security under future climate shocks
Abstract Policies in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained by a limited knowledge of climate change extremes and a focus on agricultural production rather than nutrition supply. Here we model the impacts of future extremes on national-level calorie and nutrient supply in Zambia for production and nutrition focused policy scenarios. We identify the specific cropland, yield and import increases required to achieve climate-resilient nutrition security and highlight policy options.
Authors
- Christian Chomba
- Liangzhi You (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7930-8814)
- Eleanor Fisher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6042-6706)
- Richard King (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6404-8052)
- Graham William Horgan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6048-1374)
- Alan Kennedy-Asser (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5143-8932)
- Richard Rigby (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9554-6054)
- Jon Hellin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2686-8065)
- Stewart Jennings (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1267-8623)
- Edward Pope (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8295-2667)
- Masiye Nawiko
- Giulia Caroli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3251-2866)
- Evan Girvetz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-9764)
- Jennie I. Macdiarmid (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0020-3951)
- Sabrina Rose (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5385-6828)
- Rebecca Sarku (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2525-5478)
- Anne Timu
- Grazia Pacillo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1012-3464)
- Andrew J. Challinor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8551-6617)
- Giriraj Amarnath (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7390-9800)
- Pedro A. Chilambe
- Stephen Whitfield (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3040-778X)
- Anna Belli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5463-692X)
- Ana Maria Loboguerrero
- Mary Ng’endo
- Shiluva Chauke Nkanyani
Institutions
- Met Office (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT)
- Chatham House (GB)
- Alliance Bioversity International - CIAT (IT)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- International Rice Research Institute (PH)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Nordic Africa Institute (SE)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Sustainability Institute (ZA)
- Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (GB)
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (DE)
- International Center for Tropical Agriculture (KE)
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (GB)
- Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (ZA)
- International Water Management Institute (IWMI) (LK)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Food
- Published
- 2026-07-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01405-1
- Primary Topic
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00