MODEL ADOPTION #298: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ ASIAN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The filter "USDCHF SHORT @ ASIAN with 5 conf" fails because it is a compound condition (currency pair + session + confidence threshold) that has not been isolated from the E8 timing geometry. The 19-trade sample is too small to distinguish genuine edge from noise, and the 30.9pp win-rate jump is statistically fragile (p > 0.05 under binomial test). No concrete, testable rule compatible with E8 rhythm logic can be extracted here — the Asian session boundary is arbitrary relative to Gods-Clock phase, and "5 conf" is a threshold that likely overfits to recent volatility patterns. EXPECTED IMPACT: Negligible to negative. Even if the filter held, it would reduce trade count by ~80% (only 1 USDCHF SHORT in current window), and the win-rate improvement is not replicable across regimes. Profit impact would be near zero in the short term, with high risk of missing profitable entries during non-Asian sessions. RISK: Overfitting to a small historical slice; regime Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-07-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21637343
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint