Match-Related Key Performance Indicators Associated with Winning in the 2026 Asian U18 Men’s Water Polo Championship: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Binary Logistic Regression

Background: Match-related performance indicators have been widely studied in senior water polo, but evidence from Asian youth competitions remains limited. Objectives: This study aimed to identify the key performance indicators (KPIs) associated with winning and losing outcomes in the 2026 Asian U18 Men’s Water Polo Championship. Methods: This retrospective observational study analysed official technical statistics from all 21 decisive matches of the tournament held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 7 to 16 March 2026, yielding 42 team-match observations (21 winners and 21 losers). The dataset comprised seven national teams and 101 registered athletes; however, individual athlete anthropometric and sociodemographic data were unavailable because of data privacy restrictions imposed by the tournament organising committee and participating teams. Seven match-level performance variables were extracted from official records. Group differences were examined using independent-sample t-tests or Mann–Whitney U tests, with effect sizes quantified using Cohen’s d and bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals. Significant non-circular variables were entered into an exploratory binary logistic regression model. Results: Three variables significantly discriminated winners from losers: goals scored (p<0.001; d=2.036), won offensive plays (WOPs; centre-forward offensive confrontations resulting in maintained advantageous possession, an exclusion, or an immediate scoring opportunity; p=0.004; d=1.026), and power-play goals (PPGs; p=0.022; d=0.816). In the binary logistic regression model, WOPs remained the only significant independent correlate of match victory (OR = 2.734, 95% CI [1.156, 6.465], p=0.022), whereas PPGs were not independently significant after adjustment (p=0.083). Conclusions: Won offensive plays emerged as the most robust non-circular performance indicator associated with winning in this Asian U18 tournament sample. These findings offer tournament-specific evidence that centre-forward offensive-play effectiveness may inform competition analysis and coaching strategies in youth water polo. However, the results should be interpreted cautiously and replicated in future studies using standardised coding protocols and larger multi-tournament datasets.