LAB #277 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+4.2pp, n=367) **SAME-WINDOW EFFECT:** Applying a phase distance filter of ≤2° would have rejected the `USDJPY LONG via rizzy` (entry=162.746) and `GBPUSD LONG via wkjudas` (entry=1.34135) trades, as both likely had phase distances >2° from their respective entry triggers. The `USDJPY LONG` is still open and could swing either way, but the `GBPUSD LONG` closed as a loss — removing it would have improved the window's win rate from 2 wins / 5 closed trades (40%) to 2 wins / 4 closed trades (50%). The rejected `EURJPY SHORT` and `AUDUSD SHORT` would remain unaffected since they were already rejected. Net PnL delta: approximately +0.3% to +0.5% on the closed portion, assuming the GBPUSD loss was ~0.5% of account. **OVER-TIME PROJECTION:** Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) would reduce total trade count by roughly 15–25% Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-07-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21637077
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #277 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #277 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+4.2pp, n=367) **SAME-WINDOW EFFECT:** Applying a phase distance filter of ≤2° would have rejected the `USDJPY LONG via rizzy` (entry=162.746) and `GBPUSD LONG via wkjudas` (entry=1.34135) trades, as both likely had phase distances >2° from their respective entry triggers. The `USDJPY LONG` is still open and could swing either way, but the `GBPUSD LONG` closed as a loss — removing it would have improved the window's win rate from 2 wins / 5 closed trades (40%) to 2 wins / 4 closed trades (50%). The rejected `EURJPY SHORT` and `AUDUSD SHORT` would remain unaffected since they were already rejected. Net PnL delta: approximately +0.3% to +0.5% on the closed portion, assuming the GBPUSD loss was ~0.5% of account. **OVER-TIME PROJECTION:** Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter (≤2°) would reduce total trade count by roughly 15–25% Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #277 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 36.5% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS