Equity-oriented transit-oriented development in Taipei: accessibility, displacement and commerce

Taipei is often described as a successful transit-oriented development (TOD) city. This view, however, hides a second-generation planning problem. Rail, buses and public bicycles already provide high accessibility; the main policy question is how the value created by that accessibility is shared among residents, firms and neighbourhoods. This article treats Taipei as a mature multimodal TOD system and uses a Taipei-calibrated station-system scenario model to compare three redevelopment pathways: market-led intensification, balanced inclusion and equity-led protection. Using official statistics and recent Taipei evidence on metro-induced gentrification, commercial upgrading, public bicycle access and station-area renewal, the model compares three outcomes: accessibility and ridership, low-income household retention and commercial continuity. The results show that the largest additional access gains occur in inner-ring and peripheral station types, not in the already accessible core. Market-led intensification produces the strongest access gain, but also the largest losses in low-income retention and local-serving commerce. A balanced scenario keeps much of the access benefit while reducing displacement pressure. An equity-led scenario protects residents and local businesses more strongly but reduces development intensity. The study provides a transparent framework for comparing redevelopment trade-offs in mature transit cities.