Induced e-bike adoption from income-conditioned rebates in British Columbia: who are the marginal purchasers?

Electric-assist bicycle (e-bike) purchase incentive programs have gained popularity worldwide, yet evidence on their effectiveness in generating new (marginal) e-bike purchases remains limited. The objective of this research is to examine the marginality of e-bike purchases incentivized by income-conditioned rebates (i.e., the likelihood an e-bike would not have been purchased without the rebate), and to determine whether rebate value, household income, and other factors moderate this marginality. We use survey data from 1,110 participants in two e-bike rebate programs in British Columbia, Canada. Rebate values ranged from CA$350 to CA$1,600, with higher rebate values only available to lower-income recipients. A latent class model of purchase motivations identified five types of purchasers, including Cost Minimizers (27%), Mode Substituters (17%), and Effort Minimizers (7%), along with two mixed categories of Cost Secondary (34%) and Cost Indifferent (15%) purchasers. The average likelihood of a marginal purchase was 56%, ranging from 21% to 75% with increasing rebate value. Besides the strong effect of rebate value, rebates were more effective (i.e., likely to generate a marginal purchase) when recipients were from lower-income households, commuted regularly, and were not cycling prior to the purchase. More marginal e-bike purchases were also associated with lower-priced e-bikes and rebate recipients who were younger, had a post-secondary degree, and were Cost Minimizers. The findings are promising for potential mode shift stimulated by e-bike rebate programs and support income-conditioning of e-bike rebates to improve effectiveness and equity.