LAB #288 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+0.4pp, n=107) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) filter to the current live window would have rejected the GBPUSD LONG via wkjudas (entry=1.34135, CLOSED/LOSS) and the NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas (entry=0.58623, CLOSED/LOSS), as both likely fell within that phase distance range. This would have removed two losses from the window, improving the win rate from 3 wins out of 10 trades (30%) to 3 wins out of 8 trades (37.5%), a +7.5pp improvement. The PnL delta would be positive, avoiding two losing trades, though the small sample (n=10) limits statistical significance. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +0.4pp win-rate improvement from the backtest (n=107) suggests a modest but consistent edge, likely reducing noise from marginal setups near phase boundaries. However, the small effect size risks bein Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-07-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21637200
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #288 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #288 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+0.4pp, n=107) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) filter to the current live window would have rejected the GBPUSD LONG via wkjudas (entry=1.34135, CLOSED/LOSS) and the NZDUSD SHORT via wkjudas (entry=0.58623, CLOSED/LOSS), as both likely fell within that phase distance range. This would have removed two losses from the window, improving the win rate from 3 wins out of 10 trades (30%) to 3 wins out of 8 trades (37.5%), a +7.5pp improvement. The PnL delta would be positive, avoiding two losing trades, though the small sample (n=10) limits statistical significance. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +0.4pp win-rate improvement from the backtest (n=107) suggests a modest but consistent edge, likely reducing noise from marginal setups near phase boundaries. However, the small effect size risks bein Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #288 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance CLOSE (2-5deg) — improves win rate from 32.3% to 32.7% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS