When Heat Meets Drought in Maharashtra: Deciphering Compound Extremes Using Copula‐Based Probabilistic Analysis

ABSTRACT Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) events have emerged as one of the most adverse types of climate extremes, as their co‐occurrence often produces impacts greater than those of individual hazards. Such events generate cascading effects on water resources, agriculture and human welfare. This study provides a district‐scale assessment of CDHW events across Maharashtra, India, during 1960–2025, using gridded temperature and rainfall datasets to capture fine‐scale spatial variability. Two threshold combinations (P30/T70) and (P10/T90), denoting high and extreme conditions, respectively, were used to identify CDHW events using standardised precipitation and temperature indices. The frequency, duration, severity and cumulative intensity of the CDHW events were evaluated for two contrasting periods: pre‐1990 and post‐1990. Additionally, a bivariate copula framework was applied to quantify the joint dependence between CDHW duration and severity using both ‘AND’ and ‘OR’ operators. This framework was further used to derive joint exceedance probabilities and return periods at multiple thresholds (25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles). Results reveal a pronounced post‐1990 intensification in the frequency and severity of CDHW events, especially during the monsoon season, with substantial regional heterogeneity. Central and western districts of Maharashtra exhibit higher joint exceedance probabilities and shorter joint return periods, implying more frequent and strongly coupled CDHW events. In contrast, northern and eastern districts show lower exceedance probabilities and longer return periods, indicating weaker compound risk. These findings provide actionable, region‐specific insights for climate adaptation planning, Heat Action Plans, drought preparedness and integrated water‐resource management across Maharashtra.