Potential areas of invasion and environmental suitability of alien fishtail palms (Caryota spp.) in the Neotropics

Abstract Invasions by alien plants are one of the main threats to biodiversity. As eradication could be expensive and inefficient, invasions prevention is one of the most adequate strategies. Fishtail palms ( Caryota L.) have been widely used as ornamental and has become invasive in some places. Herein, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to map the most vulnerable areas to C. mitis and C. urens invasion in the Neotropical region and provides a review of their seed dispersal by animals. The expansion of Caryota in the Neotropics, initiated in the 1900s in Nassau Islands, Bahamas. Thenceforward, it grew exponentially, almost doubling the number of records at each decade. Many of the occurrence records registered for C. mitis (28.7%) and C. urens (50.81%) in the Neotropics match potential distribution areas estimated by ENM and eleven records of C. urens were registered within five protected areas. Caryota urens had a greater invasive potential than C. mitis , both in terms of a larger potential area for occupation in the Neotropics, as well as in richness and abundance of potential seed dispersers. We highlight geographical regions and protected areas that must be monitored and managed to prevent the expansion of these palms in the Neotropics.