LAB #305 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: XAUUSD LONG @ ASIAN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.3% to 66.7% — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: XAUUSD LONG @ ASIAN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.3% to 66.7% (+34.4pp, n=21) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current trade window, applying the XAUUSD LONG @ ASIAN with 5 conf filter would have had no direct impact, as none of the 10 listed trades involve XAUUSD. The filter is specific to gold during Asian hours, and the current live trades are all forex pairs. Therefore, the win-rate and PnL delta would remain unchanged for this specific window. The filter's benefit is entirely untested against the current active portfolio. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filter could provide a meaningful edge if XAUUSD exhibits consistent Asian-session bullish behavior with high confidence signals. The reported improvement from 32.3% to 66.7% win rate (n=21) is statistically significant but based on a small sample, raising risk of overfitting. Risks include regime shifts in gold's intraday seas Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-07-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21637463
- Primary Topic
- Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence
- Type
- preprint