Generation Rather Than Sex Shapes Wing Morphology in <i>Cydalima perspectalis</i> (Lepidoptera, Crambidae): Insights From Geometric Morphometrics and Climate‐Based Projections

ABSTRACT Understanding how invasive species respond to environmental variation is essential for predicting their persistence and spread under climate change. Morphological traits associated with dispersal may vary across environmental conditions, while climatic suitability determines the potential for range expansion. Integrating these perspectives can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms underlying invasion success. In this study, we combined geometric morphometric analyses of wing morphology with climate‐based ecological niche modelling to investigate phenotypic variation and potential distribution dynamics of the invasive box tree moth, Cydalima perspectalis , in Türkiye. We compared wing morphology between generations and sexes and evaluated current and future habitat suitability under contrasting climate‐change scenarios. Wing morphology differed significantly between generations, whereas sexual differences were weak and largely associated with size variation. Individuals emerging earlier in the season exhibited larger and broader wings, while those emerging later showed smaller and narrower wing configurations. Ecological niche modelling identified precipitation‐related variables as the primary determinants of habitat suitability and projected a reduction and northward shift of suitable areas under future climate scenarios. These findings suggest that environmental variation can influence both morphological traits and potential distribution patterns in invasive insects.