Do elite cues affect public opinion? Evidence from Switzerland's EU negotiation breakdown

On 26 May 2021, the Swiss Federal Council announced the unilateral termination of negotiations with the European Union on the institutional framework agreement, effectively abandoning a years-long effort to formalize bilateral relations. We study if this decision functioned as an elite cue about Switzerland's future relationship with the European Union, influencing public attitudes toward European integration. Using survey data from May to June 2021, we employ a regression discontinuity design leveraging interview timing around the announcement. Our findings suggest the announcement prompted a modest shift in public opinion, with some evidence from ordinary least squares models indicating a stronger response among French-speaking respondents. We discuss the implications for studying elite cues in direct-democratic contexts, suggesting that salient political events may generate limited change even when signals are ambiguous and the political context makes such effects rather unlikely.