Implications of Electrifying Industrial Heat on the Irish Electricity Grid

Decarbonisation of industrial heat is a key component of Ireland’s climate policy, yet its implications for the electricity system remain poorly understood. This study assesses the impact of electrifying low- and medium-grade industrial heat on the Irish electricity grid using a bottom-up modelling approach that integrates national heat demand data, company-level fuel consumption data from 50 industrial sites, and scenario-based electrification pathways to 2050. Electricity demand associated with industrial heat pumps and electric boilers was evaluated in terms of total electricity requirements, peak demand, renewable electricity share, and substation-level capacity constraints. Results indicate that industrial heat electrification could require an additional 0.76–5.94 TWh of electricity annually, depending on the electrification level. Peak electricity demand is projected to increase from 6024 MW to 6976 MW by 2050 under high electrification scenarios. The analysis identified significant local network constraints, with many analysed companies connected to substations lacking sufficient available demand capacity. A worst-case scenario combining peak electrical demand with low renewable generation showed that electrification could substantially reduce dispatchable capacity margins. Findings suggest that industrial heat electrification may be underrepresented in current electricity system planning assumptions, highlighting the need for coordinated planning across industrial policy, electricity infrastructure, and electricity system modelling.