Spatial Interactions Between the Water–Energy–Food Development Level and Ecosystem Services in the Yellow River Basin

Understanding the spatial spillover effects of ecosystem services (ESs) on the water–energy–food (WEF) development level is critical for regional sustainability, yet empirical evidence remains limited. Using prefecture-level units in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), this study investigated the relationship between four ESs, i.e., water yield, carbon storage, food production, and soil conservation, with the WEF development level from 2000 to 2020. A spatial Durbin model and geographically and temporally weighted regression were employed to quantify global spatial spillover effects and local heterogeneity. Results showed that both the WEF development level and ESs improved over the study period. At the basin scale, carbon storage exhibited the strongest positive effects on WEF development, with direct, spillover, and total effects of 0.29, 0.89, and 1.18, respectively. At the regional scale, water yield was positively associated with the WEF development level in northern Shaanxi and Shanxi Provinces but negatively associated in western Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Carbon storage maintained weak but consistently positive associations across most regions. Food production showed strong positive associations in eastern Shandong Province but moderate negative associations in southern Shanxi and western Henan Provinces. Soil conservation showed strong positive associations in western Inner Mongolia and parts of Qinghai, whereas strong negative associations occurred in eastern Shandong and Henan provinces. These findings underscore the critical role of carbon storage in supporting coordinated WEF development and emphasize the need to enhance carbon storage and adopt region-specific ecosystem management strategies for sustainable development in the YRB.