An exploratory multilevel analysis of logistics performance and exports in Latin American and Caribbean economies during the Panama Canal expansion era

Purpose This study examines the relationship between logistics performance and export competitiveness across 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies during the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) era (2010–2018). Specifically, it investigates how the six components of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), together with key macroeconomic factors, are associated with export performance across different income groups. Using a two-level Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM), the study evaluates changes in these relationships before and after the PCE. The objective is to provide empirical evidence that informs trade facilitation, customs modernization and maritime logistics policies aimed at enhancing regional export competitiveness. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a two-level HLM to analyze annual panel data for 20 LAC countries from 2010 to 2018. Repeated yearly observations (Level 1) were nested within countries (Level 2) to account for temporal and cross-country variation. Export performance was modeled as the dependent variable, while the six LPI components, along with gross domestic product, trade freedom (TRFR), industrialization and foreign direct investment, served as explanatory variables. Separate analyses were conducted for the pre-PCE (2010–2014) and post-PCE (2016–2018) periods to assess changes in logistics and export relationships across income groups. Findings The findings indicate that customs efficiency was the logistics component most strongly associated with export performance during the post-PCE period. The incremental explanatory power (R2) of LPI customs increased from 1.3% in the pre-PCE period (2010–2014) to 8.3% in the post-PCE period (2016–2018), reaching 10.1% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2018. High-income LAC economies exhibited statistically significant negative associations between customs performance and exports, while no significant relationships were observed for upper-middle- and lower-income economies. TRFR and industrialization consistently showed positive associations with export performance across the models. Research limitations/implications This study is exploratory and identifies statistically significant associations rather than causal relationships between logistics performance and export competitiveness. The analysis is limited to 20 LAC countries over the 2010–2018 period and relies on secondary indicators, which may not capture all the institutional and operational dimensions that influence exports. Future research should incorporate longer time series, additional trade and governance variables, and causal inference methods to examine the mechanisms underlying these relationships. Despite these limitations, the findings provide a robust empirical basis for future multilevel studies on logistics performance, customs modernization and regional trade competitiveness. Practical implications The findings provide evidence for policymakers, customs authorities and port administrators seeking to strengthen export competitiveness through targeted logistics reforms. Prioritizing customs modernization, digital trade facilitation and administrative efficiency can improve the effectiveness of maritime supply chains, particularly in the post-PCE environment. The results also support investments in institutional capacity, streamlined border procedures and trade facilitation initiatives alongside broader industrialization and trade liberalization strategies. For LAC economies, these measures can enhance regional integration, improve logistics performance and increase resilience and competitiveness in global maritime trade and international export markets. Social implications Improved logistics performance and customs efficiency can generate broader social benefits by facilitating trade, supporting economic growth and creating employment opportunities throughout the LAC region. More efficient border procedures and maritime logistics systems can reduce trade costs, enhance the availability of goods and strengthen regional connectivity, benefiting businesses and consumers alike. By promoting institutional modernization and more transparent customs administration, governments can improve public sector efficiency and investor confidence. These improvements contribute to more inclusive and sustainable economic development, helping countries enhance resilience, reduce trade barriers and expand opportunities for participation in global value chains. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by providing one of the first multilevel analyses of the relationship between logistics performance and export competitiveness in LAC economies during the PCE era. Applying a two-level HLM captures both temporal and cross-country variation that conventional regression approaches often overlook. The study also distinguishes pre- and post-expansion periods and examines differences across income groups, offering new insights into the evolving role of customs performance and trade facilitation. These findings provide a valuable empirical foundation for future research on logistics and maritime trade.