Impacts of Prolonged Drought on Water-Dependent Tourism in Chile: An Integrated Hydro-Climatic and Economic Assessment

Prolonged drought in Chile has imposed increasing pressures on water-dependent tourism activities, although its effects have been assessed only fragmentarily and rarely linked to tourism-relevant indicators. This study provides an integrated hydro-climatic and economic assessment of drought impacts on two tourism categories especially sensitive to water availability: snow and mountain tourism, and tourism related to water bodies and watercourses. For this purpose, time series of snow cover, streamflow, precipitation, and water quality were analyzed for 2000–2024, complemented by sectoral statistics and indirect indicators of economic impact. Trend analyses used linear regression, the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, Pettitt change-point detection, and Spearman correlations between hydroclimatic variables and tourism proxies. Results show a significant decline in snow cover across most of northern and central Chile, with strong signals in basins critical for winter tourism and a common temporal break in 2009. Widespread streamflow reductions were also detected in rivers from central, southern, and Patagonian Chile, although with differing magnitude and timing. In contrast, water-quality changes were limited and spatially heterogeneous. In the ski sector, reduced snow accumulation was associated with shorter ski seasons, fewer skier-days, and lower direct employment. For rafting, declining streamflow was associated with reduced hydrological suitability, indicating less favorable potential operating conditions. Overall, drought affects tourism significantly but unevenly, depending on geography, hydrological regime, activity type, and data availability. The proposed integrated assessment helps identify differentiated drought-impact pathways and supports more climate-resilient tourism management.