Simulation and Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda Under Current and Three Future Scenarios Based on the Biomod2 Model Under Global Climate Change

Spodoptera frugiperda is a highly polyphagous pest that poses a serious threat to global agricultural production. Understanding its species distribution is of great importance under the current context of climate change. In this study, we used the biomod2 platform to integrate six models, namely XGBOOST, Maxnet, Maxent, MARS, GBM, and GLM, to construct an ensemble model. This ensemble model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and three future climate scenarios, and to analyze the main environmental factors influencing its distribution and their change trends. The results indicated that Bio08, Bio16, Bio09, and Bio03 were the major environmental factors affecting the species’ distribution. Under the current scenario, the suitable area was approximately 2026.05 × 104 km2, accounting for about 10% of the global land area, and was mainly concentrated in East Asia and central North America. The expansion of S. frugiperda varied among the three future climate scenarios; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the expansion toward higher latitudes was the most pronounced, with the total suitable area increasing by 91.8%. Analysis of the three climate scenarios revealed that the expansion trend of S. frugiperda intensified with increasing carbon emissions. Under the most conservative SSP1-2.6 scenario, even a slight reduction in suitable area was possible. This study provides an in-depth exploration of the distribution characteristics of S. frugiperda and its responses to environmental factors from a geographical perspective. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the species’ potential distribution and the influence of environmental variables from a spatial standpoint. They offer a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest in specific regions, and may also serve as a reference for future studies on similar invasive insect pests.