A hybrid experimental and machine learning framework for designing and predicting compressive strength of ultra-high-performance concrete

Abstract Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) offers exceptional mechanical and durability properties but often relies on quartz powder, raising sustainability and occupational health concerns. This study introduces an integrated experimental-computational framework for predicting the compressive strength of UHPC and developing quartz-free mixtures. Experimentally, the effects of mixing sequence, sand characteristics, superplasticizer chemistry, and curing regime were investigated, leading to a quartz-free UHPC achieving 136 MPa at 28 days under heat-curing. A dataset of 550 UHPC compressive strength records was compiled, incorporating quantitative mix proportions and categorical variables (cement type, superplasticizer base, fiber type, and specimen geometry). Sixty-three machine learning models from tree-based, boosting, and support vector machine families were optimized using seven meta-heuristic algorithms. The Particle Swarm Optimization-tuned XGBoost model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (R 2 = 0.897, RMSE = 7.63 MPa), followed by the Differential Evolution-optimized Random Forest (R 2 = 0.867, RMSE = 8.70 MPa). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified curing age as the most influential predictor after optimization. The proposed framework enables accurate and interpretable UHPC strength prediction and supports the design of safer and more sustainable quartz-free UHPC with reduced experimental effort.