Extreme Climate Shocks and Grain Production Resilience: Evidence From China

ABSTRACT The stability of grain production is central to ensuring food security, yet increasingly frequent extreme climate events pose a serious threat to the sustainable development of agriculture. Existing research has largely focused on the impact of extreme climate on average grain output, with insufficient discussion on how it affects production stability. This study combines stochastic yield dynamics with food system stability to develop a climate‐resilience measure, empirically analyzing the impacts of extreme precipitation and temperature on grain production resilience. The results indicate that extreme climate significantly weakens grain production resilience by reducing the mean grain output while increasing yield volatility. Meanwhile, the effects exhibit substantial regional and crop heterogeneity. However, improvements in agricultural technology, agricultural insurance, and agricultural socialized services can effectively mitigate the adverse impacts to a certain extent. In addition, extreme climate shocks generate significant spatial spillover effects on grain production resilience in neighboring regions.