Sustainable adaptation in agriculture: exploring consumer support for low-carbon climate resilient crops

Agricultural production systems around the globe are experiencing significant climate-driven pressures. As climate change effects intensify, agricultural adaptation must align with climate sustainability policy and consumers who are attentive to production that reduce supply-chain emissions. This study provides case-study evidence from New Zealand, where warming climatic conditions are driving exploration of alternative horticultural land uses such as bananas, and where consumer demand may influence whether such diversification pathways are commercially viable. We examine how preferences for cleaner production attributes shape banana demand using a discrete choice experiment of banana consumers designed to assess the effects of organic and spray-free production, carbon-zero claims, and local origin on consumer choices. A Latent Class Analysis identified preference heterogeneity finding 38% of consumers state willingness to pay for low environmental impact attributes: organic (+76%), spray-free (+33%) and carbon-zero (+23%), indicating potential demand for environmentally produced bananas aligned with a changing climate. The findings suggest that a differentiated domestic banana product could support sustainable production and climate-adaptive diversification but should be interpreted as case study stated-preference demand-side evidence rather than as an assessment of industry feasibility. Further evidence on production costs, supply-chain logistics, and revealed demand is needed before drawing stronger conclusions about commercial potential.