Global Drivers of Food Prices: The Roles of Energy Prices, the U.S. Dollar, and Supply Chain Pressures

Global food prices have become increasingly exposed to macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances, yetlimited empirical evidence explains how energy markets, exchange rate movements, and supply chain disruptions jointlyinfluence food price dynamics. This study examines the combined effects of global energy prices, the Broad U.S. DollarIndex, and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) on the FAO Food Price Index using monthly observationscovering January 2006 to May 2026. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed to distinguishbetween long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustments among the variables.The empirical findings indicate that energy prices constitute the dominant long-run determinant of global food prices,with sustained increases in energy costs translating into persistently higher food prices over time. By contrast, appreciationof the U.S. dollar exerts a significant negative influence only in the short run, while the aggregate impact of global supplychain pressures remains statistically limited. Additional robustness analyses—including alternative energy measures,crisis-period controls, and disaggregated FAO commodity indices—confirm the stability of the baseline results and revealsubstantial differences across commodity groups, particularly for vegetable oils, sugar, and cereals.By integrating energy markets, international monetary conditions, and global supply chain pressures into a unifiedempirical framework, this study provides a more comprehensive perspective on the mechanisms driving global foodprices. The findings contribute to the literature on food price formation and offer policy implications for improving foodmarket resilience under conditions of heightened global uncertainty.