Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Social Policy and Political Regime Change in Central America

ABSTRACT Does democracy deliver more inclusive and transparent social policy in low‐capacity states? And how does democratic backsliding reshape social policy? Drawing on a comparative analysis of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua, we examine how regime change and political ideology are associated with patterns of social policy access and transparency since the 1990s. We show that while both democratic and authoritarian governments expanded social spending modestly, democratic periods were consistently associated with greater transparency and public accountability. By contrast, democratic backsliding eroded access to information mechanisms and increased the opacity and politicisation of social programs, even when spending levels were maintained. These findings suggest that in weak states, the most significant contribution of democracy to social policy may lie less in spending and access expansion than in sustaining transparency and oversight.