Unraveling the Spatiotemporal Patterns and Potential Influencing Factors of County-Level Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Agricultural carbon emissions represent a major source of greenhouse gases and play a critical role in achieving global climate mitigation and sustainable agricultural development targets. In China, the rapid transformation of agricultural production systems has led to substantial spatial heterogeneity in emission patterns and driving mechanisms of agricultural carbon emissions, while the underlying processes at the county scale remain insufficiently understood. This study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and potential influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions at the county level from 2000 to 2022 in Guangdong Province, China. First, agricultural carbon emissions were estimated based on a multi-source accounting framework covering land management, crop cultivation, animal production, and straw burning based on internationally recognized emission accounting methods and IPCC global warming potentials. Then, spatial clustering characteristics were analyzed using local spatial autocorrelation (LISA) to identify heterogeneous emission patterns. Finally, an interpretable machine learning framework combining Random Forest (RF) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was employed to quantify the nonlinear effects and relative contributions of multiple socioeconomic and agricultural drivers. The results showed that agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong Province exhibited a fluctuating but overall decreasing trend, declining from 50.89 Mt CO2-eq in 2000 to 39.24 Mt CO2-eq in 2022, with an overall reduction of 22.9%. High-emission clusters were primarily concentrated in western and northern Guangdong, while low-emission areas were mainly located in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The RF models demonstrated satisfactory predictive performance, with spatial cross-validated R2 values ranging from 0.75 to 0.91 across different years. SHAP analysis suggested that ploughing area, fertilizer and pesticide usage, agricultural machinery power, and primary industry GDP were the dominant factors associated with agricultural carbon emissions, whereas urbanization consistently showed a negative association. Furthermore, these drivers exhibited pronounced nonlinear responses and distinct regional heterogeneity, particularly between the PRD and the western and northern parts of Guangdong Province. These findings suggested that agricultural carbon emissions are jointly influenced by agricultural production intensity, mechanization, and socioeconomic transition and can provide a scientific basis for developing region-specific low-carbon agricultural policies and promoting the sustainable transformation of agricultural systems.