Investigation of the suitable habitat for giant pandas and optimization of protected areas under the coupling of the maxent and marxan models: a case study of the Qionglai Mountains region

Taking the Qionglai Mountains region as a case study, this paper undertakes research on the identification of suitable habitats for giant pandas ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) and the optimization of protected areas by leveraging the coupling approach of the MaxEnt and Marxan models. Environmental variables were screened using the jackknife method. The annual mean temperature, the temperature of the coldest month, the temperature of the driest quarter, the temperature of the coldest quarter, and elevation were identified as the primary influencing factors. The MaxEnt model was then employed to predict the potential suitable habitats for giant pandas. The results indicate that the area of highly suitable habitats accounts for 6.83% of the total region. These habitats are distributed in a zonal pattern along the mountains, mainly concentrated in Wenchuan and Baoxing counties. The optimization analysis using the Marxan model reveals that while the existing protected areas cover most of the highly suitable habitats, there are still notable conservation gaps in the western part of Li County and the central part of Mao County. Based on these findings, an optimization plan for protected areas is proposed. Specifically, it involves expanding the Wolong, Fengtongzhai, and Longxi - Hongkou nature reserves; establishing new nature reserves with areas of 364.34 km² in Li County and 739.71 km² in Mao County; and maintaining the existing boundaries of the Siguniang Mountain, Baishuihe, and Jiuding Mountain nature reserves. This plan can enhance habitat connectivity and facilitate genetic exchange among populations. It provides a scientific foundation for the conservation of giant pandas in the Qionglai Mountains and the construction of national parks.