Widespread Increase in Global Plant Water Stress Obscured by Greening

Abstract Understanding the vulnerability of plants to more severe and frequent drought events and developing adaptive management strategies requires robust methods for quantifying long‐term changes in plant water stress (PWS). Most data‐driven explorations of long‐term trends in PWS have focused on alterations in canopy structure (e.g., leaf area index) or canopy structure‐dependent variables (e.g., gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration). This is largely because long‐term trends in canopy structure are relatively easy to detect from satellite observations. However, a focus on structural responses limits our ability to detect physiological stress due to challenges in isolating it from the effects of structural greening. Consequently, this difficulty hampers a comprehensive examination of long‐term PWS in the context of global greening trends. To address this gap, we developed a new process‐based metric for PWS to isolate physiological responses from structural greening, which we then used to detect global PWS trends over the past four decades. Combining site‐level and satellite observations at the half‐degree resolution across the globe, we found that accounting for greening‐related changes substantially alters the sign of long‐term PWS trends inferred from traditional approaches. Specifically, our study reveals a significant increase in PWS that is only detectable when accounting for structural greening trends. When greening trends are not accounted for, global PWS appears to have decreased over time. Overall, our results highlight the need to integrate structural dynamics and greening into PWS detection. Such an integration of observations and land models will improve our understanding of plant‐water‐energy interactions.