Here comes the sun: investigating the solar rebound effect and consumption behavior in photovoltaic households

Abstract The widespread adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems is key to decarbonizing the energy system. However, access to zero-marginal-cost electricity may induce increased consumption, known as the solar rebound effect (SRE). Combining longitudinal household panel data with survey evidence and machine-learning-based reconstruction of total electricity consumption, we confirm the presence of the SRE. The average generation-based effect of about 20.1% is robust over system dimensioning and negatively correlated with pre-installation electricity use. Moreover, efficient households exhibit significantly higher rebound effects. From a system perspective, an SRE of this magnitude could add more than 2000 TWh of global household electricity demand by 2050, with implications for grid infrastructure, generation capacity, and life-cycle emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating rebound effects into energy system and life-cycle models and suggest that policies promoting PV deployment should be complemented by measures that preserve marginal price signals and address post-adoption consumption behavior.