Integrated Impact Assessment of Urban Expansion on Groundwater Depletion and Land Surface Temperature in Arid Megacity: A Case Study of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The overexploitation of groundwater resources is a significant concern due to the potential risks associated with a decline in freshwater availability. Future planning and policymaking should consider long-term groundwater availability and urban expansion patterns to understand urban growth. This study aims to investigate the impact of land cover change on groundwater depletion. Further, the land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation change using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI analysis have been performed to find the spatial spread of urbanization and its impact on surface temperature in the area. For groundwater assessment, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data have been used, while for land cover, NDVI, and LST assessment, Landsat data have been used. The GRACE-based groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly has been correlated with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data. An annual groundwater storage decline of ~7.01 mm/year was identified. Groundwater and land-cover changes were evaluated at five-year intervals from 1990 to 2025. The urban expansion from 838 to 1470 km2 coverage shows the rapid expansion and its impact on vegetation and groundwater recharge in the area. The results demonstrate a rapid increase in the urban area, which affected the vegetation and increased the surface temperature in the area. Urban expansion reduced vegetation cover and infiltration, contributing to elevated land surface temperature and groundwater depletion. This study focused on integrating the groundwater impacts due to other environmental variables, i.e., temperature increase and vegetation decrease. The temporal increase in urban expansion decreases the infiltration rate, which impacts the groundwater storage and depletion, as shown by the linear trend. These findings underscore the urgent need for effective groundwater management and vegetation management policies and integrated urban planning strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of freshwater resources.