Transforming irrigation potential into quantifiable economic returns through integrated performance and investment analysis in Central Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation schemes (SSISs) of Ethiopia enhance agricultural transformation, supporting food security, poverty reduction, and climate-resilient growth. In the Central Ethiopia Regional State, only 2989 ha of irrigable land is currently utilized. This study integrates irrigation performance assessment, scenario-based analysis, and economic evaluation to quantify productivity gaps, revenue losses, and potential gains from improved scheme functionality, management, and institutional capacity. Technical performance indicators including conveyance efficiency, water delivery reliability, irrigation efficiency, cropping intensity, and land and water productivity were analyzed in addition to the cost benefit assessments of eight major crops, namely maize, wheat, onion, tomato, garlic, potato, carrot, and cabbage. Optimum utilization could generate $ 83.4 million (ETB 12.42 billion) in seasonal gross revenue and $ 67.4 million in net benefits (ETB 10.04 billion), with all crops exhibiting benefit–cost ratios above unity and high-value horticultural crops, particularly onion, tomato, and garlic contributing maximum profitability. Scenario simulations show that 25% increase in irrigation performance increases net irrigated area to 41%, adding USD 5.7–5.9 million (ETB 0.85 billion–ETB 0.88 billion) annually and reducing unrealized revenue losses. Institutional and managerial improvements, including strengthening Water Users Associations, participatory governance, and energy-efficient water management, are critical to achieve these gains. Modest, targeted rehabilitation, operational optimization, crop prioritization, water–energy efficiency measures, and institutional strengthening can augment economic returns, enhance rural employment, stabilize household incomes, and advance climate-resilient agricultural systems. These outcomes may boost Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2021–2030) contributing to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and national climate resilience objectives.