Predictors of Onward Migration in Multi-Stage Mobility: Evidence from Russia-Born Arrivals to Israel

Abstract This study examines predictors of onward migration among Russia-born adults who arrived to live in Israel from 2022 onward. Using a survey of 438 respondents and retrospective month-level residence histories, we estimate event-history models of the first non-Israel main-residence spell lasting at least 3 months. By the survey date, 28.3% had moved onward, with exits concentrated in the first year after arrival. Onward-migration hazards are higher among respondents with additional citizenship or permanent residence outside Israel, remote-work arrangements, and transnational ties, and lower among those with stronger Israel-specific anchoring, especially Hebrew proficiency, an Israeli partner, and children enrolled in Israeli childcare or schooling. Gender differences operate through household configuration rather than as a simple average difference between women and men: young children and care responsibilities reduce women’s onward mobility, while portable household employment can facilitate onward movement. The findings show that multi-stage migration is shaped by the interaction of mobility-enabling resources and destination-specific anchoring.