Spatial evolution of commercial attractiveness under subway network expansion: a long-term study of Beijing

This study examines the long-term impacts of subway network expansion on surrounding commercial activities by focusing on Chaoyang District, Beijing, across six time points from 2003 to 2020. Building on the traditional Huff model, a multi-modal utility framework is developed to incorporate travel time under driving, walking, bus, and subway scenarios, and model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood methods. The results reveal a positive and spatially distance-decaying relationship between subway development and mall attractiveness. Over time, consumers’ sensitivity to travel time declines, while the influence of mall size and overall accessibility increases, indicating a shift in shopping behavior induced by improved subway accessibility. In addition, the effective walking catchment of subway stations expands as the network matures, suggesting that rail transit development not only reshapes spatial accessibility but also alters travel behavior itself. By adopting a longitudinal perspective and integrating multimodal travel behavior into commercial attractiveness modelling, this study provides new empirical evidence on the co-evolution of subway systems and urban commercial spatial structures, offering practical insights for subway planning, station-area development, and transit-oriented land-use strategies.