Impact of Climate Warming on the Coupled Water‐Heat‐Vapor‐Carbon Processes in Permafrost Regions on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau: A Study Driven by Multiple Meteorological Data

ABSTRACT Climate warming is accelerating the decomposition of organic carbon and the release of greenhouse gases in permafrost regions, potentially creating a positive feedback effect that could further exacerbate climate change. However, the comprehensive effects of rising air temperatures on heat and moisture transfer, organic carbon decomposition, and carbon dioxide transport processes in permafrost regions remain poorly understood. This study introduces a novel coupled water‐heat‐vapor‐carbon model based on surface energy balance theory to systematically analyze the effects of rising air temperatures on soil temperature, moisture content, and soil organic carbon in permafrost regions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) As air temperatures rise, surface net radiation, latent heat of evaporation, and soil heat flux increase, while sensible heat flux decreases; and (2) the rise in air temperature impacts the water and heat transport processes in the soil. As air temperatures increase, the liquid water flux decreases, while the water vapor flux increases. Additionally, heat transfer in the soil is enhanced with rising air temperatures; and (3) the increase in air temperature significantly enhances the transport of CO 2 in the soil, with both gaseous and liquid CO 2 diffusion fluxes increasing; and (4) rising air temperatures accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions. However, the effect of air temperature fluctuations on soil organic carbon diminishes with increasing soil depth.