STOCHASTIC BEHAVIOR OF GLOBAL CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS: BRIDGING ACADEMIA AND POLICY

The aim of this study is to analyze the stochastic properties and persistence of global total crude steel production and carbon emissions through unit root tests and to evaluate the response of the series to shocks. Within this framework, ADF, KPSS, ERS Point Optimal, Zivot Andrews, FFFFF-DF and Sollis unit root tests are applied. The findings indicate that global crude steel production and carbon emissions are persistently affected by past shocks and contain nonlinear dynamics. The results identify lasting effects of macroeconomic, environmental and political developments. Structural breaks and Fourier based analyses show limited short term effects of interventions. Long term and strategic policy frameworks appear more influential. The results reveal that production and emission dynamics relate more closely to global trade, pricing mechanisms and policy preferences than to technical processes. The study provides a comprehensive global perspective and contributes to the literature in methodological and inferential terms. The main limitation arises from the use of aggregated world data, which excludes country level and technology based distinctions.